Free course
Prediction Markets 101
Twelve lessons covering how prediction markets work, where they're legal, how Polymarket and Kalshi differ under the hood, and how to read a market like a trader. No fluff, no dates — just the syllabus.
Module · Foundations
- Lesson 01·8 min read
What Is a Prediction Market? A Beginner's Guide
A prediction market is an exchange where contracts pay out based on real-world events — elections, sports, economic data, weather.
- Lesson 02·7 min read
How Prediction Market Prices Map to Probabilities
Binary contract prices translate directly into implied probabilities. Here's how to read them — and where the simple translation breaks down.
- Lesson 03·8 min read
Order Books vs AMMs in Prediction Markets
Order books and AMMs are two ways to match prediction-market trades. The choice shapes liquidity, spread, and how trade size affects price.
- Lesson 04·8 min read
Why Prediction Markets Often Beat Polls
Prediction markets aggregate information faster than polls because traders are paid to be right and punished for being wrong.
Module · Platforms
- Lesson 05·9 min read
How Polymarket Works: USDC, UMA & On-Chain Resolution
Polymarket is built on Polygon. Trades clear on-chain in USDC; outcomes are resolved by UMA's optimistic oracle.
- Lesson 06·9 min read
How Kalshi Works: CFTC-Regulated Event Contracts, USD Settlement
Kalshi is the first CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange. Here's how its contracts, clearing, and US-bank custody actually work.
- Lesson 07·10 min read
Polymarket vs Kalshi: Regulated vs Crypto Prediction Markets
The two largest prediction markets in the world have almost nothing in common under the hood. Here's how to choose.
- Lesson 08·9 min read
Polymarket vs Robinhood Prediction Markets: How They Differ
Robinhood lists CFTC-regulated event contracts to US retail traders inside its brokerage app. Polymarket is a non-custodial, USDC-settled market on Polygon.
- Lesson 09·10 min read
The Best Prediction Markets in 2026 (Ranked & Compared)
Which prediction market should you use in 2026? It depends on where you live, what you want to trade, and how much capital you're moving.
Module · Regulation & Risk
- Lesson 10·9 min read
Are Prediction Markets Legal in the US? (2026 Update)
Kalshi is fully legal nationwide. Polymarket geoblocks the US. PredictIt operates under a CFTC no-action letter. Here's the full state of play.
- Lesson 11·7 min read
How to Read a Status Page (Without Being Misled)
A green status page does not always mean everything is fine. Here's what to look for.
- Lesson 12·8 min read
Polymarket Outage History: Notable Incidents & Lessons
Polymarket has been remarkably reliable, but its biggest incidents have come at the worst possible times.