Free course
Prediction Markets 101
Twelve lessons covering how prediction markets work, where they're legal, how Polymarket and Kalshi differ under the hood, and how to read a market like a trader. No fluff, no dates — just the syllabus.
Module · Foundations
- Lesson 01·8 min read
What Is a Prediction Market? Beginner's Guide
A prediction market is an exchange where contracts pay out based on real-world events — elections, sports, economic data, weather.
- Lesson 02·7 min read
How Prediction Market Prices Map to Probabilities
Binary contract prices translate directly into implied probabilities. Here's how to read them — and where the simple translation breaks down.
- Lesson 03·8 min read
Order Books vs AMMs in Prediction Markets
Order books and AMMs are two ways to match prediction-market trades. The choice shapes liquidity, spread, and how trade size affects price.
- Lesson 04·8 min read
Why Prediction Markets Often Beat Polls
Prediction markets aggregate information faster than polls because traders are paid to be right and punished for being wrong.
Module · Platforms
- Lesson 05·9 min read
How Polymarket Works: Architecture & Tech Guide
How Polymarket's international platform matches orders off-chain, settles trades on-chain, and resolves outcomes — and where its separate US product differs.
- Lesson 06·9 min read
How Kalshi Works: CFTC-Regulated Event Contracts, USD Settlement
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange. Here's how its contracts, clearing, and US-bank custody actually work.
- Lesson 07·10 min read
Polymarket vs Kalshi: 2026 Comparison & Fees
The two largest prediction markets in the world have almost nothing in common under the hood. Here's how to choose.
- Lesson 08·9 min read
Polymarket vs Robinhood Prediction Markets: How They Differ
Robinhood lists event contracts to eligible US customers inside its brokerage app. Polymarket operates an international crypto-based platform and a separate US product.
- Lesson 09·10 min read
Best Prediction Markets (2026): Ranked & Compared
Which prediction market should you use in 2026? It depends on where you live, what you want to trade, and how much capital you're moving.
Module · Regulation & Risk
- Lesson 10·7 min read
Are Prediction Markets Legal in the US? Sourced Checklist
US access depends on the product, where you are, and the specific contract. Here's a sourced checklist — not legal advice.
- Lesson 11·7 min read
How to Read a Status Page (Without Being Misled)
A green status page does not always mean everything is fine. Here's what to look for.
- Lesson 12·8 min read
Polymarket Outage History: Sourced Incident Notebook
A small, dated sample of official Polymarket status records — read carefully for what they establish and what they leave open.