Free course
Twelve lessons covering how prediction markets work, where they're legal, how Polymarket and Kalshi differ under the hood, and how to read a market like a trader. No fluff, no dates — just the syllabus.
A prediction market is an exchange where contracts pay out based on real-world events — elections, sports, economic data, weather.
Binary contract prices translate directly into implied probabilities. Here's how to read them — and where the simple translation breaks down.
Order books and AMMs are two ways to match prediction-market trades. The choice shapes liquidity, spread, and how trade size affects price.
Prediction markets aggregate information faster than polls because traders are paid to be right and punished for being wrong.
Polymarket is built on Polygon. Trades clear on-chain in USDC; outcomes are resolved by UMA's optimistic oracle.
Kalshi is the first CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange. Here's how its contracts, clearing, and US-bank custody actually work.
The two largest prediction markets in the world have almost nothing in common under the hood. Here's how to choose.
Which prediction market should you use in 2026? It depends on where you live, what you want to trade, and how much capital you're moving.
Kalshi is fully legal nationwide. Polymarket geoblocks the US. PredictIt operates under a CFTC no-action letter. Here's the full state of play.
A green status page does not always mean everything is fine. Here's what to look for.
Polymarket has been remarkably reliable, but its biggest incidents have come at the worst possible times.