Are Prediction Markets Legal in the US? (2026 Update)
Kalshi is fully legal nationwide. Polymarket geoblocks the US. PredictIt operates under a CFTC no-action letter. Here's the full state of play.
The legal status of prediction markets in the United States changed dramatically between 2022 and 2025. This article reflects the situation as of 2026 — but always verify with the platforms themselves before depositing.
Kalshi: fully legal
Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a Designated Contract Market. After winning a federal court ruling in 2024 that affirmed its right to offer election contracts, Kalshi now operates legally in all 50 states.
Polymarket: blocked in the US
Polymarket settled with the CFTC in January 2022 over operating an unregistered binary options market. It now geoblocks US IP addresses and requires geographic attestation. Using a VPN to access Polymarket from the US violates the platform's terms.
PredictIt: academic exemption
PredictIt operated under a CFTC no-action letter granted to Victoria University of Wellington. The no-action letter has been challenged and amended multiple times; PredictIt's continued operation has been preserved through litigation. Position limits are strict.
Manifold and play-money platforms
Manifold Markets uses Mana, a play-money currency, and is therefore not subject to gaming or derivatives regulation. It is legal everywhere.
What about state-level laws?
CFTC regulation generally preempts state gambling laws for federally-approved contracts. However, sports contracts have triggered pushback from individual state gaming regulators. The legal landscape for sports event contracts specifically is still evolving.