Manifold API Status
Live, in-browser checks against Manifold's public APIs. Refreshes every 15s.
Public v0 API
api.manifold.markets/v0
- Markets APIPublic markets feed—mswarming up
- Users APIPublic user lookup—mswarming up
- Groups APIPublic market groups / topics—mswarming up
About Manifold
Manifold Markets is a play-money prediction market platform where users trade with Mana, a non-cashable in-app currency. It is popular for forecasting research and rationalist communities. We probe the public v0 Markets and Users endpoints to verify the API is returning live data.
Manifold at a glance
How Manifold works (under the hood)
Manifold Markets launched in 2021 as a play-money prediction market focused on research, rationalist-community forecasting, and the long tail of "will X happen?" questions that real-money markets won't list. It rapidly became the largest prediction market by market count.
Because Mana isn't redeemable for cash (winnings can be donated to selected charities), Manifold sidesteps gambling and derivatives regulation worldwide. This trades real-money discipline for radical market variety — over 100,000 markets at any time.
Tech stack
- Backend
- Firebase / Cloud Functions
- Currency
- Mana (M$), non-redeemable
- Matching
- Hybrid CFMM + limit orders
- API
- Public REST v0 (read), authenticated writes
- Resolution
- Market creator (with abuse moderation)
Fees
No real-money fees. Manifold charges a small percentage of Mana on certain market actions and on charity redemptions. The economy is play-money so frictions are about reputation and Mana scarcity, not dollars.
Liquidity & activity
Volume is fragmented across tens of thousands of markets, with the top political, AI, and crypto markets attracting the deepest activity. Many niche research markets have only 10–100 traders but produce surprisingly sharp forecasts.
Notable incidents
- 2024 — Mana economy reset shifted exchange rates between Mana and charity donations.
- Ongoing — Creator-resolves are a continual source of disputes; community moderation has expanded.
How it differs from other platforms
Manifold is the best place to learn forecasting without risk. Versus Polymarket and Kalshi, it has more markets but no real-money skin. Versus PredictIt, it has no position limits and no academic gating.
What to watch during a live event
Manifold runs on Firebase and Cloud Functions, so its failure modes cluster around Google Cloud regional incidents. When the API here goes amber, cross-check the Google Cloud status page — a surprisingly high fraction of Manifold outages are upstream.
For high-stakes research markets (AI benchmark resolutions, policy questions with academic followers), watch for creator-resolution disputes rather than uptime. This page cannot probe a market's resolution correctness — only its reachability.
Manifold vs other prediction markets
| Platform | Real money | Regulator | Chain | US access |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Yes (USDC) | Unregulated | Polygon | Geoblocked |
| Kalshi | Yes (USD) | CFTC (DCM) | — | All 50 states |
| Manifold ← | No (Mana) | N/A | — | Yes |
| PredictIt | Yes (USD) | CFTC no-action | — | Limited |
| Limitless | Yes (USDC) | Unregulated | Base | Per terms |
| Futuur | Yes (multi-crypto) | Offshore | Off-chain ledger | Restricted |
| Myriad | Yes | Unregulated | Abstract L2 | Per terms |
Full breakdowns live on each platform's own status page. See also: Polymarket vs Kalshi · Best prediction markets 2026.
Data & methodology
Checks run from your browser every ~45 seconds. Latency reflects your network path to the endpoint, not the server alone. Historical uptime is logged hourly via an independent worker (rolling 30-day window).
- Markets API— Active markets feed.
- Users API— Public user lookup.
- Groups API— Topic groupings.
- Open-source repo— Manifold is open source.
Frequently asked
Is Manifold Markets down?
Is Manifold Markets real money?
About this Manifold status mirror
Our Manifold mirror probes the public v0 REST API at api.manifold.markets — Markets, Users and Groups endpoints — none of which require authentication. Manifold is open source and their API is one of the more permissive in this space, so a green light here means both DNS reachability and a successful JSON parse of live market data.
Because Mana is play-money and not redeemable for cash, a Manifold outage never carries the financial urgency of a Polymarket or Kalshi outage — but for researchers running forecasting experiments, downtime still corrupts data collection windows.
This is an unofficial status page and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Manifold. All data is provided on a best-effort basis with no guarantees about accuracy or availability. polymarket.health does not place trades, hold funds, or store user data — see our about page and disclaimer.
Learn more
- What Is a Prediction Market? A Beginner's GuideA prediction market is an exchange where contracts pay out based on real-world events — elections, sports, economic data, weather.
- The Best Prediction Markets in 2026 (Ranked & Compared)Which prediction market should you use in 2026? It depends on where you live, what you want to trade, and how much capital you're moving.